Where Members See Growth: How Their Outlook Compares with ITR Economics
Where are heat treating companies finding their strongest growth opportunities? A comparison of MTI Members’ responses with ITR Economics’ August 2026 forecast reveals meaningful alignment in aerospace and defense, along with differences that deserve attention as companies develop their 2027 business plans.
The central message is clear: growth opportunities exist, but they vary considerably by industry. Understanding your company’s customer mix may be more valuable than relying on a broad economic headline.
Aerospace Leads and ITR Supports the Outlook
Aerospace accounts for the largest share of Members’ reported top growth industries at 22%. That emphasis aligns closely with ITR’s forecast for US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production, which projects growth of 7.7% in 2026, 8.6% in 2027, and 6.1% in 2028.
ITR identifies elevated aircraft backlogs and above-average capacity utilization as factors supporting continued production growth. Although production disruptions prompted a reduction in its 2026 outlook, the firm increased its expectations for 2027 and 2028.
For heat treaters serving aerospace customers, this alignment supports continued attention to customer relationships, workforce capabilities, quality systems, and capacity planning. The civilian aircraft forecast does not cover every aerospace segment, but it provides a strong directional match with Members’ responses.
Defense Offers Another Point of Alignment
Defense represents 17% of Members’ reported growth industries. Together, aerospace and defense account for 39% of the responses shown in the Member chart.
ITR’s economic overview identifies defense and high technology as leading areas of strength. It also highlights aerospace, defense, maintenance and repair, and adjacent markets as potentially resilient opportunities in the coming years.
This supports Members’ emphasis on defense, although the report does not provide a separate numerical defense forecast. The alignment is therefore qualitative: Members are identifying an industry that ITR also views favorably.
Automotive Requires a Closer Look
Automotive also accounts for 17% of Members’ responses, but ITR’s outlook presents a more mixed picture.
North America Light Vehicle Production is forecast to decline 0.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, before rebounding 4.6% in 2028. US Heavy-Duty Truck Production, however, is forecast to grow 4.2% in 2026 and 16.7% in 2027, followed by a 4.0% decline in 2028.
The distinction matters. A Member reporting automotive growth could be gaining market share, winning a new program, or serving a stronger vehicle segment even while broader light vehicle production softens. Companies should identify which customer programs are driving their growth before assuming that the entire automotive market is expanding.
General Industrial Growth will be Uneven
General Industrial represents another 17% of Members’ responses. ITR forecasts US Industrial Production growth of 1.5% in 2026, a 0.3% decline in 2027, and 1.7% growth in 2028.
That suggests Members’ opportunities may be concentrated in particular customers or applications. ITR describes an economy in which stronger technology and defense markets coexist with weaker traditional manufacturing segments.
For heat treaters, “industrial” is a starting point for analysis. The more useful question is: Which end markets do those industrial customers ultimately serve?
Smaller Categories Provide Additional Planning Signals
Energy–mining accounts for 7% of Members’ responses. ITR’s oil and gas extraction forecast calls for 2.1% growth in 2026, essentially flat activity in 2027 at −0.1%, and 3.6% growth in 2028. This suggests measured opportunity, although oil and gas extraction is only one part of the broader energy–mining category.
Medical accounts for 3% of responses. ITR forecasts medical equipment and supplies production growth of 4.2% in 2027, following a 0.3% decline in 2026. That recovery may warrant attention from companies with the capabilities to serve medical customers.
Turn the Comparison Into a Growth Plan
These findings show directional alignment rather than a statistical correlation. Members’ responses describe where they see growth opportunities; ITR’s forecasts measure broader industry activity. The percentages represent different things and should not be compared as equivalent growth rates.
Used together, however, they offer a valuable planning tool. Management teams should compare their sales pipeline, backlog, customer concentration, and capacity needs with the forecasts for the markets they serve.
ITR also projects MTI Average Monthly Sales growth slowing from 7.9% in 2026 to 2.5% in 2027, reinforcing the need for targeted growth strategies.
The opportunity for Members is to connect what they are hearing from customers with what the economic data indicates. That combination can help companies pursue promising markets, prepare their teams, and make better investment decisions as they enter 2027.
Over 50% of MTI commercial heat treat Members are in the sales reporting and forecasting program. This program provides detailed trend and market share analysis in your region and nationally. If you are not in this program, you are missing out on a key data analysis for your management decisions. If you would like more information on the program, email MTI CEO Tom Morrison at tom@heattreat.net and let him know, “I would like details for MTI’s Sales-Forecasting Program.”