Automotive and Heavy-Duty Truck Forecasts Point to Two Different Paths Through 2028

The latest ITR Economics forecasts present contrasting outlooks for two markets that significantly influence demand for heat treating: North American light vehicle production and U.S. heavy-duty truck production. Although ITR currently places both markets in Phase A, Recovery, their projected growth patterns differ considerably.

The automobile market is expected to remain relatively flat through 2028, while heavy-duty truck production is positioned for a much stronger near-term recovery and double-digit growth in 2027. For heat treaters serving these sectors, understanding the timing and strength of these business cycles will be essential for managing capacity, capital spending, staffing, and customer expectations.

Automobile Production: A Muted and Uneven Outlook (ITR Forecast)

ITR forecasts the following annual growth rates for North American light vehicle production:

• 2026: -0.2%
• 2027: -2.1%
• 2028: 4.6%

As of June 2026, North American light vehicle production totaled approximately 15.2 million units on a 12-month moving-total basis. ITR expects annual production to remain in a relatively narrow range of approximately 15.0 million to 15.6 million units through 2028.

ITR currently classifies light vehicle production in Phase A, Recovery. In ITR’s business-cycle framework, Phase A generally indicates that the market’s rate of decline is improving and moving toward renewed growth. However, recovery does not necessarily mean that production levels are already rising significantly. The June 2026 annual growth rate was still slightly negative at -0.2%, and the forecast calls for another contraction in 2027 before stronger growth returns in 2028.

Several structural challenges are limiting the strength of the automotive recovery. Vehicle prices remain high, and elevated borrowing costs are making monthly payments less affordable. Auto loan delinquencies of more than 90 days are near record levels, indicating that some consumers are struggling financially. If lenders respond by tightening credit standards, vehicle financing could become even more difficult to obtain.

High gasoline prices could provide a modest source of demand as consumers consider replacing older vehicles with more fuel-efficient models. ITR also notes that hybrid vehicle sales remain strong. Nevertheless, the overall forecast suggests that heat treaters should expect limited growth from the light vehicle market during the next two years.

Heavy-Duty Trucks: Stronger Recovery Ahead  (ITR FORECAST)

The outlook for U.S. heavy-duty truck production is considerably more positive in the near term. ITR forecasts:

• 2026: 4.2%
• 2027: 16.7%
• 2028: -4.0%

As of June 2026, the heavy-duty truck production index had an annual growth rate of -16.8%, with a 12-month moving average of 87.7. Despite that steep year-over-year decline, ITR places the market in Phase A, Recovery because the direction of the cycle is improving.

ITR expects heavy-duty truck production to move into Phase B, Accelerating Growth, late in 2026. Phase B occurs when production is rising and the rate of growth is accelerating. This transition would represent a much more meaningful expansion in market activity, with production forecast to increase by a substantial 16.7% in 2027.

The stronger forecast is supported by improving shipping rates and increased interest in newer, more fuel-efficient trucks as diesel prices remain elevated. Some companies may also accelerate truck purchases ahead of proposed changes to emissions standards in 2027. Although the EPA has proposed amending some requirements to reduce their cost, the potential regulatory change could still encourage some pre-buying.

ITR cautions that this surge will not continue indefinitely. Some truck purchases that normally would have occurred later may be pulled forward into 2026 and 2027. As a result, heavy-duty truck production is forecast to contract by 4.0% in 2028.

What the Business Cycles Mean for Heat Treaters

While both industries are currently in Phase A, the business implications are very different.

The light vehicle market appears to be experiencing a weak and irregular recovery. Production is expected to remain close to current levels, decline modestly in 2027 and then rebound in 2028. Heat treaters heavily exposed to automotive production should remain disciplined about adding capacity based solely on expectations of broad market growth.

The heavy-duty truck market is showing signs of a stronger cyclical turnaround. Its expected transition into Phase B late in 2026 could create growing demand for heat-treated components used in engines, transmissions, axles, drivetrains, braking systems, steering systems, and suspension assemblies. Suppliers should prepare for potentially rapid order growth during 2027, while remembering that some of this demand may be temporary.

Key Takeaways for Business Planning

Heat treaters should consider several actions in response to these forecasts:

• Maintain conservative growth assumptions for automotive-related sales through 2027.
• Avoid overextending capacity based on the automobile market’s Phase A classification alone.
• Prepare equipment, staffing and supply chains for stronger heavy-duty truck demand beginning late in 2026.
• Communicate with truck-industry customers to determine whether pre-buying is affecting their forecasts.
• Closely monitor lead times and available capacity as the truck market enters Phase B.
• Treat the projected 2027 truck expansion as a potential short-term surge rather than permanent growth.
• Begin planning for a possible heavy-duty truck correction in 2028.
• Look beyond headline growth rates and evaluate the markets, customers and components that directly affect each plant.

Looking Ahead

The forecasts reinforce why heat treaters must evaluate each major customer market independently. Automotive production is likely to remain subdued through 2027 before improving in 2028. Heavy-duty truck production, meanwhile, is positioned for a much faster recovery, accelerating growth in 2027 and a subsequent pullback in 2028.

The opportunity for heat treaters will be in matching resources to the timing of these cycles: maintaining discipline in automotive, preparing for growth in heavy-duty trucks and avoiding overinvestment at the top of a temporary surge.

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