The Questions Heat Treat Leaders Must Ask Before 2030
The heat treating industry is not entering a normal cycle. Economic forecasts, labor trends and advancements in AI point to 2026 being an inflection point leading up to the 2030s.
Labor shortages are accelerating. Economic volatility is compressing decision timelines. AI and automation are advancing faster than most companies are prepared for. Demographic shifts are permanently changing the workforce and customer base.
Even though the road will be bumpy in the 2030’s, those who prepare now will prosper through the bumps. The decisions made between now and 2028 will echo through the 2030s. The question is not whether change is coming…the question is whether you are planning for it, or drifting into it.
Here are the critical questions heat treat leaders should be asking right now.
Workforce: Who Will Have the Knowledge in 2030?
Baby Boomer retirements are accelerating. Skilled metallurgical knowledge is walking out the door every month.
• What percentage of our tribal knowledge lives in people instead of systems?
• Do we have documented processes, or hero-based operations?
• Who are we intentionally developing to lead?
• If two key people retired tomorrow, what breaks?
Action Step: Audit critical roles. Identify your top five single points of failure and build succession plans now.
AI & Automation: Are We Leveraging It or Ignoring It?
AI is no longer theoretical, it is operational.
• Where are we manually analyzing data that software could process instantly?
• Are we using AI to reduce rework and scrap?
• Can AI help streamline compliance documentation (CQI-9, Nadcap, ASTM)?
• Are we training our team to work alongside automation?
Action Step: Launch a 90-day AI exploration initiative. Test small use cases, measure ROI, and scale what works.
Capital Investment: Are We Investing for 2026 or 2036?
Economic uncertainty tempts companies to delay capital investment—but the real question is strategic alignment.
• Does this equipment align with the customers we want in 2030?
• Are we investing in energy efficiency and sustainability?
• Will this asset attract or repel the next-generation workforce?
• Are we buying capacity, or capability?
Action Step: Run capital decisions through a 2030 filter: Does this strengthen us long-term or just increase short-term volume?
Customer Strategy: Who Do We Want to Serve?
Every heat treater has a strategy…even if it is unwritten.
• Are we chasing volume or value?
• Are we aligned with growing sectors?
• What percentage of revenue is concentrated in one customer or segment?
• If a recession hits one market, how exposed are we?
Action Step: Define your ideal 2030 customer profile and compare it to your current revenue mix.
Culture & Leadership: Are We Building a Durable Organization?
Technology will not fix weak culture. AI amplifies both strengths and weaknesses.
• Are supervisors trained to lead multi-generational teams?
• Are we developing managers, or just promoting good operators?
• Do we measure engagement, or only output?
• Are we building resilience at every leadership level?
Action Step: Invest in structured leadership development.
Risk & Resilience: What Could Break Us?
Risk is compounding…cybersecurity, compliance, energy volatility, and supply chain disruptions.
• Are we cyber-secure?
• Is our liability exposure properly managed?
• How diversified are our suppliers?
• Do we have financial reserves to weather downturns?
Action Step: Build financial and operational shock absorbers before you need them.
The Real Question
The biggest risk in 2026 is not making the wrong decision…it is drifting into 2030 without making deliberate ones.
By 2030, companies will look like the choices we made in this inflection window.
The leaders who ask better questions in 2026 will build stronger companies in the 2030s. The rest will spend the decade reacting.
The Metal Treating Institute has built an array of key benefits to help Members have clarity, understanding, and confidence to weather the storm in the fast changing marketplace including:
- Highly-Accurate Economic Forecasting
- Automated Technical Training
- Workforce Development Video Tools for Recruiting
- Leadership Development
- Peer Connection 24-7 for Best Practices
- Access to Data Driven Energy Strategies & Business Insurance
With MTI at your side, you are never alone. You are one call or click away from the answers you need to make good choices in preparation for the 2030s. Visit our website at HeatTreat.net and click on the BENEFITS tab at the top to view our very informative “explanation videos” on key resources that can help you make your company “future ready”.