Last week I attended the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) Board of Directors Meeting located in Washington DC. NAM, celebrating its 125thyear as an association, had an outstanding agenda for this meeting. The speakers included Vice President Mike Pence (R), General “Fighting Joe” Dunford Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Senators Mark Warner (D-VA), Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV), Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), Betsy DeVos US Secretary of Education, and Ivanka Trump Advisor to the President. It is quite obvious that NAM gets the attention of all lawmakers, both inside and outside the Beltway, and is an influential advocate for business in the United States.
Some of the advocacy advancements of NAM this year included:
- Approval of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)
- Leading the charge for an enforceable trade agreement with China
- Forcefully opposing harmful tariffs
- Securing the repeal of the “Cadillac Tax”
- Removal of the proposed medical device and health insurance taxes
- Laying the foundation for America’s Transportation Infrastructure Act
- Restoring a board quorum at the Export-Import Bank and restoring the Ex-Im charter
- Achieving progress on 91.5% regulatory reforms that manufacturers need
The most common concern of all small, medium, and large manufacturers across America continues to be the ability to attract a suitable workforce. For the first time in US history, we have passed 22 straight months where there are more jobs than people unemployed. NAM predicts that by 2025 there will be a 2.5 million shortfall in the labor pool. With jobs to fill, and not enough workers to fill them, we broke into roundtable discussions to learn what other manufacturers are doing to gain employees. I was amazed to learn that many leaders are going after job seekers who have traditionally “been on the sidelines” due to drug use and/or criminal records, particularly those who were formally incarcerated. Not surprisingly, the majority of businesses who have tried this approach have failed. Only one company in our group had success in this practice. I asked how safe their other law abiding employees felt about this labor pool. The CEO told us that they exclude any felons who have a sexual abuse record.
Instead NAM is taking an unprecedented approach to solving our workforce problem by launching their “Creators Wanted” campaign. They have already raised $14 Million for this national campaign. This will be a “traveling road show” with a professional traveling caravan (including a triple wide tractor trailer) to show communities that manufacturing is no longer a dirty, dark, and dangerous vocation, to reduce the skills gap, and increase technical and vocational school enrollment.
Another major concern of manufacturers is the current Coronavirus outbreak. The Assistant Deputy to President Trump, Steven Pinkos addressed the group. He assured the US that the virus is a top national security priority. He stated that our CDC and the US pharma private sector is the best in the world and they are working day and night to find a cure. He knows that this outbreak is currently disrupting the global economy, however the risk to the American public contracting the virus remains extremely low. American GDP should only be affected by .1%. Asian and European GDP will be severely affected (1 to 2%) dependent upon how long it lasts.
You cannot leave Washington DC without hearing politicians and analyst’s talk about the inner workings of the White House and Capitol Hill. Both political parties are certainly being reinvented. Of course nobody knows who will come out on top with this year’s election but here are some comments about the Democratic primary that we heard:
- Bernie does not have a chance. The unions will never back him because he will take their healthcare away that they fought so hard for
- Bloomberg is the wildcard; spending like no other presidential candidate has spent before. He has put down $350M of his own money and will drop much more without losing sleep at night
- Bloomberg is about to be bloodied because he has not been in a debate. All six guns will be blazing at him during the debate
- Bloomberg is trying to beat Trump at his own game…social media
- Right now the Democrats are united against the Republicans. If they become divided…game over
- Whoever gets the Democratic nomination, that person will have a female VP running mate
The general feeling at this Board meeting is that only one person can beat Trump…Trump himself. Trump dominates the news, like it or not, because of Twitter and Facebook. Social platforms are great to tell your story, however, can be dangerous because stories can be fake and false, just like the traditional media. Trump’s popularity is primarily driven by the economy. Current polls indicate that 65% Americans believe that they are better off today than they were three years ago. Impeachment is now viewed as win for Trump. Trump is 100% comfortable being himself, and people like that. The voting battlefields are set. An interesting comment was made that States no longer make the difference, it’s the Counties within those States that count.
General “Fighting Joe” Dunford’s talk was extremely interesting and a much needed change from the political discussions that dominated the final day. The former Chairman of the Joint Chief talked about our top security issues facing our country today. They are:
- China/Russia - Who should we be more worried about? He contends that they both look for our weakness, however Russia knows when to stop whereas China does not. Trump is going after Huawei Inc. in China because they the innovators of the 5G technology. This means President Xi has that technology and could control the world
- Iran - They are no longer going to comply and they will enrich uranium
- Korea - We have sufficient missile defense in play against the US
- Terrorism and Violent Extremism - Turkey is a petri dish for new terrorist cells. They have 3 to 4 Million Syrian terrorists in captivity that they are ready to release
*Note the former General predicts that all four rouge countries mentioned in 1, 2, and 3 above will “watch and wait” to see what happens with our Presidential election. Nothing will happen until then. This Patriot still seems in the know.
Finally, during the economic outlook session, NAM Economist, Chad Moutray predicts that we will see slower growth in 2020 than in 2019. One reason is because our US exports were at a 10 year low at the end of 2019 (the Boeing 737 Max issue has to be at the root of this). However he still takes a glass half full approach because he predicts a bump up in the second half of the year with a trade deal being worked out. The good news is that all indexes tell NAM that we need not worry about a recession in 2020.
I have really enjoyed representing Solar Atmospheres by sitting on the Board of the NAM. It is an association where a businessman from Solar can be discussing business issues with the CEO of Samsung America and the CEO of Snap On Tools. Volunteering my time to the NAM Board not only gives me a better perspective to drive our business, but it is reassuring to be connected with an association who believes in capitalism and will continue to fight socialism, isolationism, and protectionism for all manufacturers.
Respectfully Submitted,
Bob Hill